[Health News] Seoul Metropolitan Government Launches its “Mosquito Forecast System”
Seoul Metropolitan Government Launches its “Mosquito Forecast System”
Seoul’s Mosquito Forecast System |
- The Mosquito Forecast System is an administrative public health service that indexes the indication of mosquito activities in Seoul and provides information on steps citizens can take.
Policy Summary/Vision |
- Mosquito data and climatic elements collected in Seoul are used to forecast the mosquito population and alert Seoul residents of the index and stage of mosquito activities. Each stage comes with information that offers guidance to people on what they can do to prevent mosquito bites and protect themselves from mosquito-borne diseases and health conditions.
Background & Objective |
- Rising temperatures and increasing rainfall due to global warming and improved heating technologies have increased mosquito activities in all seasons.
- In 2015 in particular, the number of people who caught dengue fever overseas more than doubled from 2014. Furthermore, the Japanese encephalitis warning was issued earlier than the previous year. It has become crucial to be better prepared for mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria.
- In response to the Zika virus, the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on February 1, 2016, so as to promote quick action to protect public health and dispel anxiety over the spread of the virus.
- The Mosquito Forecast System was introduced in 2013 as part of the city’s eco-friendly measures to control mosquitoes and to prevent mosquito-borne diseases that peak in the summer and minimize discomfort.
- In 2015 in particular, the number of people who caught dengue fever overseas more than doubled from 2014. Furthermore, the Japanese encephalitis warning was issued earlier than the previous year. It has become crucial to be better prepared for mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria.
- In response to the Zika virus, the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on February 1, 2016, so as to promote quick action to protect public health and dispel anxiety over the spread of the virus.
- The Mosquito Forecast System was introduced in 2013 as part of the city’s eco-friendly measures to control mosquitoes and to prevent mosquito-borne diseases that peak in the summer and minimize discomfort.
Chronological Developments (Socioeconomic Background) |
- 2013 – 2015: Seoul introduces the Mosquito Forecast System for the first time.
ㆍ Pursuant to the “Eco-friendly Mosquito Control Plan” in 2013 designed to promote a healthy balance between people and the ecosystem, the Seoul model of the Mosquito Forecast System was introduced. The city shares information on eco-friendly ways for residents to protect themselves against mosquitoes and encourage them to take action.
ㆍ In 2013, data from 12 digital monitoring system (DMS) devices installed in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, was used to develop the formula for the first Mosquito Forecast System in South Korea. A pilot program of the system was carried out via the Seoul Metropolitan Government website.
- 2016: Seoul updates the forecast formula for the Mosquito Forecast System.
ㆍ In 2015, 50 DMS devices were installed (2 in each of 25 gu districts). Data on mosquito population collected from the devices was used to update the calculation formula, which was combined with the temperature and humidity readings from the Korea Meteorological Administration for greater accuracy. The daily mosquito forecast is automatically updated to the city website, mobile platform and broadcasting system.
ㆍ Pursuant to the “Eco-friendly Mosquito Control Plan” in 2013 designed to promote a healthy balance between people and the ecosystem, the Seoul model of the Mosquito Forecast System was introduced. The city shares information on eco-friendly ways for residents to protect themselves against mosquitoes and encourage them to take action.
ㆍ In 2013, data from 12 digital monitoring system (DMS) devices installed in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, was used to develop the formula for the first Mosquito Forecast System in South Korea. A pilot program of the system was carried out via the Seoul Metropolitan Government website.
- 2016: Seoul updates the forecast formula for the Mosquito Forecast System.
ㆍ In 2015, 50 DMS devices were installed (2 in each of 25 gu districts). Data on mosquito population collected from the devices was used to update the calculation formula, which was combined with the temperature and humidity readings from the Korea Meteorological Administration for greater accuracy. The daily mosquito forecast is automatically updated to the city website, mobile platform and broadcasting system.
Policy Introduction (Characteristics/Strategies) |
- Development Process of the Mosquito Forecast System
ㆍ Process
To develop the forecast formula for the indication of mosquito activities, it is crucial to secure monitoring data of mosquitoes in local communities. The DMS devices installed throughout Yeongdeungpo-gu in 2013 were used to collect such data. By 2015, data was being used from 50 DMS devices across Seoul to update the formula. Climatic elements (temperature and humidity from the KMA) that affect mosquito populations are also incorporated into the automatic mosquito forecast system offered at the city government website.
- Implementation
ㆍ Period: May 1 to October 31 (6 months)
ㆍ Provided at: Websites of the Seoul Metropolitan Government, 25 gu district office clinics, and Infectious Disease Control Support Center; daily mosquito forecast information provided as subtitles on YTN TV.
ㆍ Description (refer to Attachment 1)
⇒ Mosquito Forecast System by Stage (4 Stages)
ㆍ Process
To develop the forecast formula for the indication of mosquito activities, it is crucial to secure monitoring data of mosquitoes in local communities. The DMS devices installed throughout Yeongdeungpo-gu in 2013 were used to collect such data. By 2015, data was being used from 50 DMS devices across Seoul to update the formula. Climatic elements (temperature and humidity from the KMA) that affect mosquito populations are also incorporated into the automatic mosquito forecast system offered at the city government website.
- Implementation
ㆍ Period: May 1 to October 31 (6 months)
ㆍ Provided at: Websites of the Seoul Metropolitan Government, 25 gu district office clinics, and Infectious Disease Control Support Center; daily mosquito forecast information provided as subtitles on YTN TV.
ㆍ Description (refer to Attachment 1)
⇒ Mosquito Forecast System by Stage (4 Stages)
① Stage 1 (Pleasant): No outdoor mosquito larval habitats. Little outdoor mosquito activity.
② Stage 2 (Attention): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats – around 20%; Potential for bites from 1 – 2 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); No penetration into homes but a significant number may be introduced indoors if the temperature is low outside.
③ Stage 3 (Caution): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats –20 – 50%; Potential for bites from 3 – 4 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); 2 – 4 mosquitoes seen penetrating indoors at night in areas where the concentration of detached housing is high.
④ Stage 4 (Unpleasant): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats –– 50 – 100%; Potential for bites from 5 – 10 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); 5 mosquitoes seen penetrating indoors at night in areas where the concentration of detached housing is high.
② Stage 2 (Attention): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats – around 20%; Potential for bites from 1 – 2 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); No penetration into homes but a significant number may be introduced indoors if the temperature is low outside.
③ Stage 3 (Caution): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats –20 – 50%; Potential for bites from 3 – 4 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); 2 – 4 mosquitoes seen penetrating indoors at night in areas where the concentration of detached housing is high.
④ Stage 4 (Unpleasant): Outdoor mosquito larval habitats –– 50 – 100%; Potential for bites from 5 – 10 mosquitoes during an outdoor activity at nighttime (assuming that the subject remains in one place for 10 – 15 minutes); 5 mosquitoes seen penetrating indoors at night in areas where the concentration of detached housing is high.
⇒ Tips for Action by Mosquito Forecast System Stage (4 Stages)
① Stage 1 (Pleasant): Identify mosquito larval habitats. Install fly screens on house to block points of entry.
② Stage 2 (Attention): Check and repair fly screens and septic tanks for any gaps or leaks. Remove any stagnant water from empty cans or containers around the house. Keep doors closed during late hours.
③ Stage 3 (Caution): Beware of mosquitoes and use repellant during outdoor activities such as hiking. Use mosquito nets (detached housing). Use cooling system indoors. Use mosquito nets for baby cribs, strollers, etc. Cover the rainwater drainage and containers. Flip planter dishes upside down.
④ Stage 4 (Unpleasant): Refrain from nighttime activities. Use repellant during such activities and shower immediately afterwards. Spray insecticide around entrances to the house. Use mosquito nets at night and mosquito incense before sleep. Report mosquito activity to the local health center.
② Stage 2 (Attention): Check and repair fly screens and septic tanks for any gaps or leaks. Remove any stagnant water from empty cans or containers around the house. Keep doors closed during late hours.
③ Stage 3 (Caution): Beware of mosquitoes and use repellant during outdoor activities such as hiking. Use mosquito nets (detached housing). Use cooling system indoors. Use mosquito nets for baby cribs, strollers, etc. Cover the rainwater drainage and containers. Flip planter dishes upside down.
④ Stage 4 (Unpleasant): Refrain from nighttime activities. Use repellant during such activities and shower immediately afterwards. Spray insecticide around entrances to the house. Use mosquito nets at night and mosquito incense before sleep. Report mosquito activity to the local health center.
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‧ Resources
* Digital (Mosquito) Monitoring System devices installed for use.
- Mosquito Forecast System: automatically updated on the website
* Digital (Mosquito) Monitoring System devices installed for use.
① Period: April 6 – October 31, 2015 (6 months)
② Devices: 50 (installed in 25 gu districts around the city)
③ Method: Daily monitoring (automatically updated on the website at 7 everyday) ※ Site survey and maintenance required on a regular basis.
④ Use: Accuracy of forecast improved by updating the system formula according to collected data.
② Devices: 50 (installed in 25 gu districts around the city)
③ Method: Daily monitoring (automatically updated on the website at 7 everyday) ※ Site survey and maintenance required on a regular basis.
④ Use: Accuracy of forecast improved by updating the system formula according to collected data.
· Technological Aspect
- Development of the mosquito forecast formula① An average is taken from the data from DMS devices installed in the residential areas in 25 gu districts. Based on the time series and descriptive statistical data of the total number of mosquitoes, the format of each data source is analyzed and then composite parameters are calculated, to be used in the formula.
② Model congruence based on AIC, correlation between forecast and the actual number of mosquitoes, and time series evaluations are taken into consideration to select the forecast formula.
② Model congruence based on AIC, correlation between forecast and the actual number of mosquitoes, and time series evaluations are taken into consideration to select the forecast formula.
- Mosquito Forecast System: automatically updated on the website
· To incorporate the climatic elements (temperature and humidity) that affect mosquito populations, data is used from the KMA Automated Synoptic Observing System (at the Seoul weather station in Songwol-dong, Jongno-gu). The daily mosquito activity index is updated to the website (with cooperation from the KMA and the Information Planning Officer).
| Mosquito Indication Stage | Actions to Take | |
|---|---|---|
| Preventive | Proactive | |
| Stage 3: Caution High |
-Keep doors and windows (if without fly screens) closed after 7 p.m. -Use mosquito nets (apartment residents) |
-Pest control for mosquito larvae around residence. -Apply repellant on children during outdoor activities (only products designed for children; read instructions carefully). -Adults should use repellant during outdoor activities. |
Outcome & Evaluation (Cause of Success/Failure) |
- In 2015, 50 Digital (Mosquito) Monitoring System (DMS) devices were installed throughout Seoul to overcome the limitations of the Mosquito Forecast System introduced in 2013. As a result, reliability improved to 80%. The DMS devices need continued monitoring and maintenance to ensure high reliability.
- Currently, forecasts are made on the adult mosquito population (single index) across Seoul, based on which the mosquito indication stage is determined. To be more practical for the general public however, the mosquito indication index needs to be issued for each area by incorporating the unique geographical features and characteristics of each of the 25 gu districts in the city.
- Currently, forecasts are made on the adult mosquito population (single index) across Seoul, based on which the mosquito indication stage is determined. To be more practical for the general public however, the mosquito indication index needs to be issued for each area by incorporating the unique geographical features and characteristics of each of the 25 gu districts in the city.
Applicability (Effects) |
- Adopted by Seoul as a first in South Korea, the Mosquito Forecast System has been benchmarked by other cities and provinces and may soon be launched nationwide. The system can provide helpful practical tips for people as well as for pest control purposes.
- For 3 days from June 7 to 9 in 2016, civil servants, etc. from international city governments (Beijing, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Delhi, Metro Manila, Taipei, Tokyo, etc.) participated in the 12th ANMC21 Conference on Combating Infectious Diseases, where Seoul’s Mosquito Forecast System and relevant programs were introduced.